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Exxon Mobil warns global oil inventories are at "unheard of" lows, potentially pushing Brent crude to $160 as analysts raise price targets.
Exxon Mobil Senior Vice President Neil Chapman warned that global oil inventories are approaching "unheard of" lows, potentially pushing physical Brent crude prices to $160 per barrel as a significant supply deficit emerges [1]. Speaking at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Chapman noted that strategic reserves and inventory drawdowns have temporarily masked a shortfall of roughly 11 to 12 million barrels per day [1].
Key takeaways
Chapman’s comments underscore the growing impact of geopolitical disruptions on crude flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments [1]. The International Energy Agency reported that Iran-related closures of the strait have cost the market over a billion barrels, marking the largest oil supply disruption in history [2]. While current inventories have mitigated the impact, analysts suggest the crude futures market is failing to adequately reflect the scale of this disruption [2]. Chapman indicated that once prices reach a certain threshold, demand destruction will occur to rebalance the market, but this may not happen until inventories hit minimum levels [2].
In response to the tightening market, Wall Street has grown more bullish on the energy giant. Barclays analyst Betty Jiang increased her price target to $182 from $163, citing depleting inventories and shrinking OPEC spare capacity, while Mizuho lifted its target to $175 from $159 [1]. Analyst ratings compiled by Intellectia show a consensus of "Moderate Buy," with 12 buy ratings and 7 hold ratings [2]. This optimism follows strong operational performance, including record production from the Permian Basin, continued growth from Guyana, and a 15.8% increase in operating income [1]. Additionally, Exxon is reportedly exploring a return to Venezuelan oil production, evaluating how its heavy-oil expertise could apply to assets there, though significant political and regulatory hurdles remain [1].
The divergence in analyst opinions on Exxon’s valuation highlights broader market uncertainty regarding future oil prices [1]. While some models suggest the stock trades at a discount to intrinsic value due to strong free cash flow and rising oil-price leverage, others argue shares already reflect expected growth and face risks from energy transition pressures [1]. As inventories dwindle, the company’s integrated model spanning production, refining, and chemicals positions it to benefit from potential price spikes, though commodity volatility remains a primary risk for investors [1].
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jun 3, 2026 · How we report
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