Loading article…
Grayscale says Bitcoin could have already hit its bottom, citing Fed rate outlook and long‑term holder metrics as key signals for a potential rebound.
Bitcoin closed above $27,000 on Thursday, a level that Grayscale’s head of research Zach Pandl says may already represent the asset’s bottom after a prolonged bear market driven by macro factors [2]. The implication is that if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes and growth holds, Bitcoin could start a new upside phase, making the next Fed decision a pivotal market catalyst.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | ≈ $27,000 (closing level) |
| 24h % move | +0.6 % |
| Key level | $27,000 support |
| Catalyst | Fed rate‑pause expectations [2] |
Pandl argues that Bitcoin has “grown up” and is now more sensitive to macroeconomic conditions than to crypto‑specific news, placing the Fed’s interest‑rate policy at the “driver’s seat” for price direction [2]. The market is currently pricing a 66 % chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at its July 29 meeting, down from 88 % a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool [2]. This reduced probability of a hike aligns with the view that the recent price stabilization may be the low point of the cycle, which traditionally would have been expected in September or October.
Beyond macro data, on‑chain metrics suggest a supportive environment for a bottom. In July, K33 highlighted that more than half of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss—a historic pattern that often precedes a market bottom [2]. Additionally, long‑term investor holdings hit an all‑time high of 14.7 million BTC, according to Swan Bitcoin’s Cory Klippsten, indicating strong accumulation by investors with a longer horizon [2]. These factors, combined with the macro narrative, point to a convergence of technical and fundamental signals.
If Bitcoin does indeed hold above $27,000 while macro conditions improve, the market could see a gradual transition from a bear‑phase consolidation to the early stages of a new uptrend, testing the resilience of the asset’s “grown‑up” status.
Coverage is mostly measured — 241 of 286 reports stay neutral.
Every Monday — the token unlocks, Fed dates & catalysts set to move crypto and markets this week. So you’re never blindsided.
Free · 3-min read · one-click unsubscribe
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jul 29, 2026 · How we report
As of the latest reports, Bitcoin is priced at about $63,400, down $1,950 from the previous day and roughly $54,680 lower than a year ago.
Bitcoin’s all‑time high was $126,198 in October 2025, making the current price roughly 50% lower.
Analysts point to a bullish divergence in the weekly relative strength index (RSI) as evidence that downside momentum may be weakening.
Bitcoin’s market cap is around $1.33 trillion, significantly larger than that of Ethereum, which is about $233 billion.
Analysts note that Bitcoin remains in a downtrend below its 200‑day moving average and could see further declines, with some forecasting a potential bottom below $40,000.