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Gold slips under $4,100 amid a stronger dollar and rising Fed hike odds, with RSI near 49 and key support at $4,073.
Gold fell to $4,082.83 on Friday, snapping a brief rally above $4,100 but keeping the metal on track for a four‑month losing streak as sellers reclaimed control amid a firmer U.S. dollar and higher odds of a July Fed rate hike.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Spot price | $4,082.83 |
| Daily RSI | 48.3 (below 50) |
| USD position | Near three‑week highs |
| Fed hike probability | 38% for a 25 bps increase (up from 16% a week ago) |
The greenback rebounded from six‑week lows after fresh U.S.–Iran tensions and a mixed batch of U.S. macro data, lifting the dollar to three‑week highs. Market pricing now shows a 38% chance of a 25‑basis‑point Fed hike at the July meeting, up from 16% a week earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. This hawkish tilt has bolstered short‑term Treasury yields, pulling demand away from non‑yielding assets like gold.
On the daily chart, gold sits below its 21‑day simple moving average at $4,073.95, with the 50‑day SMA at $4,185.76 forming the nearest resistance. The Relative Strength Index sits at 48.3, indicating muted upside momentum. A close above the 50‑day SMA would be needed to ease bearish pressure, while a break beneath the 21‑day SMA could expose lower support levels.
Beyond the dollar’s resurgence, gold is pressured by disappointing Chinese July business PMI data and heightened caution ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. A potential hawkish stance from the BoJ could revive yen buying, weakening the dollar and offering a tailwind for gold, but escalating Middle‑East hostilities would likely reinforce dollar safe‑haven demand, further suppressing the metal.
Gold’s inability to sustain above $4,100 underscores the dominance of dollar‑driven risk aversion, leaving the metal vulnerable unless a shift in monetary policy or geopolitical risk alters the balance.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jul 31, 2026 · How we report
Countries are repatriating Gold to strengthen crisis preparedness and avoid the risk of sovereign asset confiscation or sanctions. This shift in custody strategy follows the 2022 freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves by Western powers.
The spot price of Gold was $4,370.78 per ounce as of 12:05 p.m. ET on September 11, 2026. This price represented a 0.57% decline from the previous close.
The Bank of Spain holds approximately 289 tonnes of Gold. This amount ranks as the sixth-largest gold reserve among European Union countries.
Gold prices are driven by inflation expectations, central bank policies, global economic conditions, and investor demand. Currency strength, particularly the U.S. dollar, and physical or industrial demand also affect the daily spot price of Gold.