Bitcoin steadies near $60,000 as analysts spot early bottom signals

Bitcoin traded just above $60,000 on Friday, marking a two‑month consolidation after slipping below $70,000 in early June and sitting roughly 50% beneath its October record of $126,000【1】. Analysts say the price action, combined with a bullish divergence in the weekly relative strength index (RSI), points to decelerating downside momentum and the earliest signs of a long‑term bottom.

Chart signals and technical context

Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald highlighted a bullish divergence in Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, indicating that price momentum is slowing while the indicator climbs—a classic early‑bottom signal【1】. Wald added that the cryptocurrency will likely continue to consolidate until it can reclaim its 200‑day moving average, currently around $72,000, though a further leg lower cannot be ruled out【1】. Wolfe Research’s Read Harvey echoed the downtrend, noting that Bitcoin has failed to break above the descending 200‑day average since losing it in November and may stall below that level before another decline【1】.

Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton observed improvement in a momentum metric she tracks, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing and that Bitcoin’s cyclical downtrend appears to be maturing into a basing phase【1】. Together, these technical cues imply that while short‑term volatility remains possible, the market may be transitioning from a steep decline to a more stable consolidation zone.

Market positioning and on‑chain backdrop

The broader market context remains cautious. Bitcoin’s price has hovered in the $58,000–$65,000 range for almost two months, after giving back roughly 60% of gains from the 2022‑2025 rally【1】. On‑chain data from other analysts point to a long‑term holder realized price near $40,300, a level that historically precedes bottom formation when prices fall about 15% below it【3】. Although some commentators argue that a drop below $50,000 is unlikely without a major catalyst, the current price still sits well above that threshold, reinforcing the view that the worst‑case scenario may be limited to the $40,000–$45,000 zone【3】.

What to watch

• $72,000 – Reclaiming the 200‑day moving average would signal a shift from consolidation to a potential uptrend.
• $40,000–$45,000 – A sustained breach below this range could confirm a deeper bottom aligned with long‑term holder metrics.
• Regulatory milestones – Any U.S. crypto‑bill progress or Federal Reserve policy decision could trigger renewed volatility.

The price’s steadiness near $60,000, combined with technical divergences and a narrowing gap to key moving averages, suggests that Bitcoin may be edging out of its steep decline. Whether the market can sustain this base or slides into a lower leg remains contingent on upcoming price tests and macro‑policy developments.