US and Iran deadlocked on reopening Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge

U.S. and Iranian officials remain unable to agree on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil shipments at a near‑standstill and pushing Brent crude up about 50% since the conflict began. President Donald Trump returned from a two‑day summit with China’s Xi Jinping on May 14‑15, where both sides said the strait should be open, yet no concrete plan emerged [1].

Iran’s semi‑official Mehr agency quoted President Masoud Pezeshkian saying navigation will normalize only after “the current state of insecurity” ends, and that Tehran will monitor the waterway under international law [1]. The Iranian stance is to retain control even post‑war, using threats on Persian Gulf vessels to leverage negotiations [2]. In response, the United States imposed a blockade on Iranian oil exports, hoping to force Tehran to accept U.S. terms for a peace deal [2].

China, the world’s second‑largest economy, pressed for an immediate reopening. Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Xinhua on May 15 that the strait should be opened “as soon as possible” [2]. Trump told reporters on his return flight that he discussed possibly lifting sanctions on Chinese firms buying Iranian crude, and said a decision would be made “over the next few days” [1]. He also claimed three Chinese tankers loaded with Iranian oil this week did so with U.S. permission, while Iranian state TV reported over 30 ships had been allowed passage since Wednesday night [1].

The stalemate carries broader implications. With the strait closed, global oil supplies are tightening, and the White House faces pressure to lower energy prices ahead of the November midterm elections [1]. Bloomberg’s Becca Wasser warned that the deadlock, sporadic violence, and rising economic costs make the status quo “increasingly unsustainable” and raise the likelihood of renewed conflict [2]. The only short‑term diplomatic opening appears to be postponing talks on Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, a point both sides agree to defer [2].

If the impasse persists, the world must watch whether China’s push for sanction relief or a U.S. decision on forceful removal of Iran’s uranium will shift the balance, or if the strait remains closed, further inflating oil prices and deepening geopolitical risk.