XRP Jumps 45% in a Week Amid Derivatives Selling Pressure

XRP gained 45% over the past week, reaching $1.41, even as derivatives markets showed aggressive selling pressure [3, 2]. This rally, which outpaced other major altcoins, comes despite a significant increase in short positions, raising questions about its sustainability [3, 2].

Price Action and Derivatives Dynamics

XRP is trading at $1.41, down 2% in the last 24 hours, after a weekly surge of over 45% [3]. This move positions XRP as the top performer among major altcoins over the past seven days, and it is up 40% over the last 30 days, though still down 20% year-to-date [3]. The rally saw a reported 650% spike in active addresses, from 47,180 to 356,070, and a 698% jump in receiving addresses [3]. Bitwise XRP ETF volume also recorded three consecutive days of record accumulation, suggesting "real accumulation" [3].

Despite this spot market activity, derivatives desks have initiated their strongest aggressive selling program of the year [2]. Binance net taker volume dropped to -$96 million, indicating a significant sell push [2]. Simultaneously, open interest on Binance climbed approximately 14.8%, suggesting new positions are entering the market predominantly on the short side [2]. The 90-day taker cumulative volume delta also signals "sell dominance," reinforcing a bearish tilt in taker flow [2]. Futures open interest sits near $3.46 billion, a modest cooling of about $30.17 million in 24 hours, with roughly $20 million in leveraged longs liquidated during a recent pullback [2].

Analyst Outlook and Market Structure

One analyst, CryptoBull, with nearly a million followers, projected XRP could reach $27 by the end of October, based on a channel drawn on XRP’s weekly chart since 2024 [1]. This channel suggests XRP is currently at its lower band, a point that has historically preceded significant rallies, such as a 66,000% gain in 2017 and a 580% gain between November 2024 and January 2025 [1]. However, this $27 target would require XRP to gain about 31% weekly for twelve consecutive weeks, far exceeding its strongest recent three-month run of 17% weekly gains [1]. Achieving $27 would also give XRP a market capitalization of $1.69 trillion, 30% more than Bitcoin's current value, requiring an inflow of roughly $1.6 trillion in twelve weeks, compared to the $1 million in XRP ETF inflows seen so far in August [1].

XRP ETF inflows have decreased monthly since May, falling from $131.94 million to $27.29 million in July [1]. Robinhood's prediction markets show a 75% probability of XRP falling below $1 at some point in 2026 [1]. The analyst's own chart suggests a more plausible target of $7, which aligns with XRP's historical performance and would require the CLARITY Act to pass and ETF inflows to rebound, potentially by 2027 [1].

What to watch

• Price Levels: Monitor XRP's ability to hold immediate support at $1.41 and reclaim resistance at $1.46, which could open a path toward $1.50 [2]. A break below $1.37 would invalidate the rebound structure [2].
• Derivatives Positioning: Watch for changes in Binance's net taker volume and open interest, as sustained aggressive selling pressure could cap further upside [2].
• ETF Inflows: Track XRP ETF inflow data, as a significant increase in institutional capital would be necessary to support a sustained rally beyond current levels [1].
• Regulatory Developments: The Senate vote on the crypto market structure bill, anticipated around September 15, could act as a catalyst for broader market sentiment [1].

The current XRP rally is characterized by strong spot accumulation coinciding with aggressive derivatives selling, creating a complex market dynamic where new money is largely taking short positions [3, 2]. The ability of XRP to absorb this selling pressure while maintaining its recent gains will be key to its near-term trajectory.