Loading article…
The GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) has dropped 85% year-to-date. Learn why the math of daily compounding makes recovering from losses difficult.
The GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) has declined approximately 85% year-to-date, exposing the extreme risks of using leveraged single-stock products for long-term exposure [2]. While Coinbase (COIN) shares have faced a 50% decline, the leveraged fund’s structure has resulted in significantly deeper losses, creating a mathematical hurdle that requires a 567% gain for investors to break even [2].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| CONL YTD Performance | -85% |
| CONL 1-Year Return (as of June 30, 2026) | -90.7% |
| Required Gain to Recover 85% Loss | ~567% |
| Fund Strategy | 200% of daily COIN return |
The primary driver of the fund's underperformance relative to its underlying asset is its "daily" reset mechanism [2]. CONL is designed to track 200% of Coinbase’s percentage move from one trading day’s close to the next, rather than providing twice the cumulative return over extended periods [5]. Because the fund resets its exposure daily, volatility creates a compounding effect that can erode value even if the underlying stock eventually returns to its starting price [2].
For example, if Coinbase falls 10% and then rebounds 11.1%, the stock price returns to its original level [2]. However, a 2x leveraged fund would drop 20% on the first day and rise 22.2% on the second, leaving the position at roughly $97.78—a net loss of more than 2% despite the underlying stock breaking even [5]. This "volatility decay" means that as drawdowns deepen, the percentage gain required to recover the original capital grows exponentially [2]. An 85% loss requires a 567% gain to return to the initial investment value, a threshold that becomes increasingly difficult to reach as the fund's net asset value shrinks [2].
GraniteShares explicitly warns that returns over periods longer than one day will likely deviate from twice the cumulative return of Coinbase [2]. The fund is intended as a tactical trading vehicle for magnified daily exposure, not as a substitute for holding COIN shares in a long-term portfolio [2]. The 90.7% decline in market-price return recorded through June 30, 2026, highlights the potential for capital destruction when the underlying stock experiences sustained downward pressure [2].
The current performance of CONL serves as a case study in the asymmetry of leveraged ETFs. While a sustained rally in Coinbase could drive the fund higher, investors face the reality that the fund does not "remember" its starting price, making the path to recovery far more demanding than the path to the current loss [2].
Coverage is mostly measured — 191 of 201 reports stay neutral.
Every Monday — the token unlocks, Fed dates & catalysts set to move crypto and markets this week. So you’re never blindsided.
Free · 3-min read · one-click unsubscribe
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 6 outlets · Aug 29, 2026 · How we report
Perpetual derivatives are futures contracts that do not have an expiration date, allowing traders to hold leveraged positions indefinitely through periodic funding payments.
Coinbase contends that current regulatory overlap between the SEC and CFTC creates a 'jurisdictional fog' that prevents US-based platforms from offering perpetual derivatives that are widely available in other jurisdictions.
CONL is designed to deliver 200% of the daily percentage move of Coinbase stock; because it resets its exposure daily, its cumulative performance over longer periods can differ significantly from twice the performance of the underlying stock.