Polymarket Sees Low Odds for US AI Safety Bill by 2027

Traders on the prediction market Polymarket currently assign only a 13% probability that a comprehensive federal AI safety bill will become law before the end of 2027 [2]. The market, which launched on November 12, 2025, has attracted roughly $99,000 in trading volume as participants bet on legislative inaction [2]. This pessimism follows a previous market focused on 2025 legislation, which resolved at "No" after shares traded below 1% [2].

Key takeaways

• Polymarket traders estimate a 13% chance of a US federal AI safety bill passing by 2027 [2].
• A previous market on 2025 AI legislation resolved at "No" with shares trading below 1% [2].
• Illinois passed a state-level AI safety bill in May 2026, while the Trump administration released a federal policy framework in March 2026 [2].
• The CFTC is increasing scrutiny of offshore prediction markets, using AI tools to detect insider trading [1].

Divergence between federal and state action

While federal legislation appears unlikely to traders, state governments are moving forward with their own regulations. Illinois passed a landmark frontier AI safety bill, SB 315, on May 29, 2026, which mandates that AI developers create risk plans [2]. At the federal level, the Trump administration released a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence on March 20, 2026, recommending legislative action while cautioning against a proliferation of state-level regulatory burdens [2].

The skepticism regarding safety standards contrasts sharply with trader sentiment on other AI-related issues. A related Polymarket market regarding an AI data center moratorium passing before 2027 is trading at roughly 93%, suggesting traders believe Washington is more likely to act on energy and infrastructure concerns than on comprehensive safety rules [2].

Regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets

Polymarket operates as a decentralized platform on the Polygon blockchain, allowing users to bet on outcomes using USDC [3]. Because the platform is technically offshore and not licensed within the United States, it is blocked stateside, though US traders have reportedly accessed it using virtual private networks [1]. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stated it is watching these activities closely and intends to pursue actions against suspicious traders within the US [1].

The agency is utilizing AI tools and third-party blockchain tracing software like Chainalysis to analyze trading patterns and flag potential manipulation [1]. This enforcement push follows the arrest of a US Army special forces soldier in April for insider trading on Polymarket related to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro [1]. Polymarket has since announced partnerships with Chainalysis and Palantir to crack down on market manipulation [1].

Why it matters

The low probability assigned to federal AI safety legislation highlights a significant gap between market expectations and policy recommendations from the executive branch [2]. As states like Illinois implement their own measures, the prediction markets suggest a lack of confidence in Congress's ability to pass comprehensive standards before 2027 [2]. Meanwhile, the platform facilitating these bets faces intensifying regulatory pressure as US authorities expand their surveillance of offshore crypto-based markets [1].