XRP analyst warns of unprecedented institutional token unlock

XRP has been trading in a tight range around $1.30‑$1.50 for weeks, and an analyst now flags what could be the biggest institutional token unlock the market has ever seen [1]. The warning comes amid mixed signals from recent ETF inflows, regulatory developments, and price resistance at $1.50.

Key takeaways

• XRP is currently near $1.37, down 6.4% week‑over‑week and 25.5% year‑to‑date [1].
• The token has failed to sustain moves above $1.50 four times this year, each rejection followed by a pullback [2].
• Institutional activity includes $25.8 million in spot ETF inflows on May 11 and a tokenized Treasury settlement pilot involving JPMorgan, Mastercard and Ondo Finance [1].
• Goldman Sachs exited its XRP ETF holdings in Q1, unwinding a $154 million position [1].
• Analysts point to the CLARITY Act and potential Fed master‑account approval as catalysts that could shift the supply‑demand balance [1].

Institutional unlock and price resistance

The analyst’s concern centers on the upcoming release of a large tranche of XRP held by Ripple Labs, which controls roughly 41.6 billion tokens [2]. While the exact size of the unlock is not disclosed in the sources, the analyst describes it as “the biggest institutional unlock the market has ever seen,” implying a substantial increase in circulating supply. This potential supply shock coincides with a price chart that has repeatedly stalled at the $1.50 resistance level. According to one source, XRP has rejected attempts to hold above $1.50 four separate times since early 2026, each failure leading to a sharp pullback and a new low near $1.30 [2].

At the same time, institutional interest is evident but uneven. Spot XRP ETFs recorded a record $25.8 million inflow on May 11, bringing cumulative inflows to $1.39 billion [1]. Yet major players such as Goldman Sachs have fully exited their XRP ETF positions, unwinding a $154 million stake in Q1 [1]. Meanwhile, JPMorgan, Mastercard and Ondo Finance piloted a tokenized U.S. Treasury settlement on the XRP Ledger in early May, signaling real‑world usage but not yet at a scale that would offset a large token release [1].

Catalysts and price targets

Regulatory and legislative developments could influence how the market absorbs the upcoming unlock. The CLARITY Act, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, still requires Senate approval, House reconciliation and a presidential signature [1]. Standard Chartered estimates that passage could attract $4 billion‑$8 billion of ETF inflows, a volume that might help absorb additional supply [1]. Additionally, an executive order signed on May 19 directs the Federal Reserve to rule on payment‑account applications within 90 days, potentially granting Ripple a Fed master account and further institutional legitimacy [1].